Recommend first building a time-bound, reversible portfolio comparison that specifies success probabilities, capital requirements, time distributions, and worst-case branches for each path (internal R&D, increased marketing, acquisition) before deciding. This is because a common baseline is currently missing (F4) and downside information is incomplete (F3, U1, U2), making a rushed commitment an irreversible risk (F5).
Decision owner in the teaching simulationChair of the Strategy and Investment Committee, in an independent teaching simulation
Human-controlled next action
The committee chair directs the finance, marketing, and business development teams to build, within a set deadline, a common comparison baseline for internal R&D, marketing, and acquisition (including probabilities, capital, timing, and worst-case branches), to be put to a vote at the next committee meeting.
What would reverse the recommendation
If evidence emerges that: (1) the deterioration rate of drug pricing and return pressures described in F2 has reached a point where the opportunity cost of delaying the comparison exceeds the downside risk shown in U2, or (2) time-bound information appears indicating a specific acquisition target is about to be taken by a competitor, then the committee should reassess whether to launch investment or acquisition immediately rather than wait for the full portfolio comparison. However, this timing and opportunity-cost threshold is not currently specified in the source (U3) and must be defined separately by the committee.
Decision review illustration
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