Cases and evidence

The team presents a 66% success rate and asks to scale funding. Do you approve?

Current product policyLast updated September 30, 2026

02Program scaling

Miracle Messages

The team presents a 66% success rate and asks to scale funding. Do you approve?

Decision owner：Executive director / funding decision owner

Verified analysis summary
What you are being asked to decideA 13-person pilot reported stable housing for 66% of participants.
Cost of getting it wrongA false positive wastes scarce funding; a false negative may stop a program that genuinely helps people.
Marcus · DecisionThe decision is not whether 66% looks good; it is what error risk the next funding stage may carry.
Evelyn · Evidence & riskBaseline, comparison group, selection logic and external causes are missing.
Sofia · Stakeholder impactFull scale may crowd out other services; indefinite delay may also harm beneficiaries.
Minerva Team's provisional judgmentWithout a baseline, comparison group, and selection logic, the result cannot be attributed to the program.

Define the tolerable false-investment risk, then design the next comparison around it.

The question only you can resolveWhich error is less acceptable now: scaling an ineffective program, or delaying an effective one?
See why the Minerva Team reached this judgment

Selected methodsEvidence map + root-cause analysis

What would reverse itA defined comparison shows a material difference while plausible external causes are constrained.

Official public sourceMinerva University · Julia Ip / Miracle Messages

Analysis work receipt

1official source7model calls10/10decision checks128.9actual runtime

What this proves—and what it does not

These are independent teaching simulations, not real correspondence or customer outcomes. Minerva Advisor is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, certified by, or reviewed by Minerva University, Minerva Project, McKinsey & Company, or any organization described in a source article. A passed case proves compliance with its versioned decision-quality contract only; it does not prove ROI or the source article's outcome.

Independent teaching simulation. The named consulting firm supplied the public source only; it did not use, review, endorse, sponsor, certify or commission Minerva Advisor. This evidence does not claim customer results, ROI or a permanent service-level guarantee.

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