Inventory–cash–expiry trap
Revenue is growing while inventory consumes cash. Do you keep accelerating sales?
Decision owner:Founder / CFO
Verified analysis summary
What you are being asked to decideA D2C distribution business was growing, while inventory cost and expiry pressure kept cash on the shelf.
Cost of getting it wrongMore sales can require more stock, deepen expiry exposure and turn apparent growth into a liquidity failure.
Marcus · DecisionGrowth is not the goal until cash conversion and expiry are separated by SKU.
Evelyn · Evidence & riskAggregate revenue hides the reinforcing inventory loop.
Sofia · Stakeholder impactA growth push can preserve headline performance while exhausting the company's operating runway.
Minerva Team's provisional judgmentThe visible growth signal can hide a reinforcing loop: more sales fund more stock, which raises expiry and cash risk.Build a 90-day SKU cash-and-expiry map and define a reorder stop condition before pursuing more growth.
The question only you can resolveWhich SKUs release cash within 90 days—and which require an immediate reorder stop?
See why the Minerva Team reached this judgment
Selected methodsRoot-cause analysis + option comparison
What would reverse itIf turnover and cash-cycle evidence shows expansion releases cash without raising expiry exposure, growth can remain primary.
Official public sourceMinerva University · Peter Wang
Analysis work receipt
1official source6model calls10/10decision checks119.4actual runtime